We continue to live in interesting times and the United States remains centre stage. It appears to have secured some kind of truce with Iran and while the chances of it holding are open to question, there is no doubting its effect on the price of oil which has fallen more than 25% in short…
If the start of 2026 posed numerous questions for investors, the end of the first quarter has done little to answer them. The obvious change is the situation in the Persian Gulf. The joint Israeli-U.S. attack on Iran has seriously de-stabilised the region, even drawing the tourist meccas of Dubai and Abu Dhabi into the…
The origin of the phrase ‘may you live in interesting times’ is disputed but at present, there can be no doubt that we are. The U.S. removal of the Venezuelan president illustrates the geopolitical status quo has well and truly been upended. Trump’s assertion that Maduro’s ‘narco terrorism’ is the reason for his arrest is…
If the first quarter of 2025 was a step into the unknown, the second quarter has proven even more so. On/off tariffs remain part of the U.S. president’s arsenal, but now they’ve been joined by Tomahawk missiles. An Israeli strike on Iran was always a possibility, but direct U.S. involvement has brought another dimension. While…
It has been an intriguing first quarter of 2025. As ever, we live in interesting times but if there have been general global themes, they are inflation remaining a little sticky, GDP growth jammed in low gear and rate cuts somewhat conspicuous by their absence. The price of gold also touched all time highs. Its…
Welcome to 2025; we have a relatively new government in the U.K. and a freshly minted administration in the U.S. As for the E.U., it seems likely that political issues will only aggravate obvious economic pressures. This is particularly relevant in Germany, its manufacturing powerhouse, which increasingly looks bereft of both political leadership and economic…
Does the election of Donald Trump change the investing landscape? Some expect it to but we’d be very surprised if Trump’s eclectic mix of tariffs and tax cuts radically changes America’s course. The former is inflationary and risks tit for tat reprisals. The latter might work if federal debt wasn’t $36tn, rising at $3bn per…
November will see rate decisions from both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. In the wake of relatively benign inflation data, interest rate reductions are almost a foregone conclusion. The European Central Bank cut by another 0.25% on 17th October. The background is clearly disinflationary. UK inflation at the CPI level…
It was no particular surprise to see the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to a range of 4.75% – 5.0%. Of the 12 voting members, only one demurred and even they voted for a quarter point reduction. Chair Powell noted “this reflects our growing confidence that with an…
September will see interest rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England and the European Central Bank. It is probably fair to say the majority of commentators are expecting rate cuts and, theoretically, the latter always enhances the value of equities. However, rate cuts at this juncture would imply a question mark over…